2009 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

0·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.089
  • 43.1%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.041
  • 10.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +0.05CPOE+0.70
  • 37.2%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.77
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:353-2Punt0–7
DALQ1 9:041267Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 1:55947Punt0–7
DALQ2 12:369105Touchdown0–14
PHIQ2 6:18467Turnover0–14
DALQ2 4:39739Field goal0–17
PHIQ2 1:04744End of half0–17
PHIQ3 15:00645Missed field goal0–17
DALQ3 11:5441Punt0–17
PHIQ3 10:2232Punt0–17
DALQ3 9:0134Punt0–17
PHIQ3 7:583-2Punt0–17
DALQ3 6:40263Touchdown0–24
PHIQ3 5:46411Punt0–24
DALQ3 3:22971Missed field goal0–24
PHIQ4 12:333-4Punt0–24
DALQ4 11:213-4Punt0–24
PHIQ4 9:4730Punt0–24
DALQ4 8:471051Turnover on downs0–24
PHIQ4 2:20620Turnover on downs0–24
DALQ4 1:3700End of half0–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb20/3622300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook5173.40
Donovan McNabb284.00
DeSean Jackson166.00
LeSean McCoy144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek79960
DeSean Jackson38470
Jeremy Maclin37470
Brian Westbrook44200
Jason Avant1280
LeSean McCoy2250

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo24/3431121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber14916.50
Felix Jones15916.11
Tony Romo3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Patrick Crayton46991
Miles Austin78900
Jason Witten67761
Kevin Ogletree11150
Marion Barber14140
John Phillips22140
Felix Jones3330
Roy Williams0100
Martellus Bennett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.03