Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.089
- 43.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.041
- 10.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- +0.05CPOE+0.70
- 37.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.04Points / drive1.77
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/36 | 223 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/34 | 311 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 91 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Crayton | 4 | 6 | 99 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 7 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03