Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.089
- 43.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.041
- 10.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- +0.05CPOE+0.70
- 37.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.04Points / drive1.77
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/37 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1/2 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 12 | 146 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/35 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 16 | 148 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 7 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03