2009 · WC · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

14·34

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.089
  • 43.1%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.041
  • 10.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +0.05CPOE+0.70
  • 37.2%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.77
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:001367Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:2232Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:22417Punt0–0
PHIQ1 3:41510Punt0–0
DALQ1 1:25520Touchdown0–7
PHIQ2 14:09283Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 13:191070Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 9:1448Punt7–14
DALQ2 7:35756Field goal7–17
PHIQ2 3:3920Turnover7–17
DALQ2 3:23318Touchdown7–24
PHIQ2 1:55537Turnover7–24
DALQ2 0:51811Field goal7–27
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half7–27
PHIQ3 15:00421Punt7–27
DALQ3 12:5438Punt7–27
PHIQ3 11:16936Punt7–27
DALQ3 7:55489Touchdown7–34
PHIQ3 5:3320Turnover7–34
PHIQ3 5:09412Turnover on downs7–34
DALQ3 3:423-1Punt7–34
PHIQ3 1:53977Touchdown14–34
DALQ4 13:301051Punt14–34
PHIQ4 5:1833Turnover14–34
DALQ4 3:59721Punt14–34
PHIQ4 1:54751Turnover on downs14–34
DALQ4 0:3500End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3723011
Mike Vick1/27610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy5244.80
Donovan McNabb2136.50
Mike Vick100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin7121461
Brent Celek35590
Jason Avant23320
Brian Westbrook12270
DeSean Jackson37141
LeSean McCoy1290
Alex Smith1180
Reggie Brown0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3524420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones161489.31
Tashard Choice14423.01
Tony Romo242.00
Marion Barber341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin710821
Roy Williams58590
Patrick Crayton34340
Felix Jones12300
Jason Witten45270
Tashard Choice1360
Kevin Ogletree1150
John Phillips1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.03