2011 · Week 1

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

41·7

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.000EPA / play-0.094
  • 44.6%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.64CPOE-1.61
  • 30.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.06
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
KCQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
BUFQ1 14:53623Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 12:14417Punt7–0
BUFQ1 10:28513Punt7–0
KCQ1 8:153-3Punt7–0
BUFQ1 6:5936Punt7–0
KCQ1 6:0936Punt7–0
BUFQ1 4:32675Touchdown14–0
KCQ1 0:55949Missed field goal14–0
BUFQ2 11:46850Field goal17–0
KCQ2 6:4213Turnover17–0
BUFQ2 6:2731Field goal20–0
KCQ2 5:381181Touchdown20–7
BUFQ2 1:46316End of half20–7
BUFQ3 15:00526Punt20–7
KCQ3 11:4245Punt20–7
BUFQ3 10:11869Touchdown27–7
KCQ3 4:1932Punt27–7
BUFQ3 3:04632Touchdown34–7
KCQ3 0:1446Turnover34–7
BUFQ4 14:01428Touchdown41–7
KCQ4 11:50520Punt41–7
BUFQ4 9:30417Punt41–7
KCQ4 6:3634Punt41–7
BUFQ4 5:2124Turnover41–7
KCQ4 4:32416Punt41–7
BUFQ4 3:0945Punt41–7
KCQ4 0:5927End of half41–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/2520840
Brad Smith0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson201125.60
Johnny White8263.30
C.J. Spiller5163.21
Brad Smith362.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson46661
David Nelson46660
Scott Chandler55632
Fred Jackson1150
C.J. Spiller1150
Donald Jones2531
Roscoe Parrish0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel22/3611911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles10565.60
Dexter McCluster44210.50
Jackie Battle273.50
Thomas Jones231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston22260
Dexter McCluster55250
Leonard Pope36240
Dwayne Bowe28170
Jake O'Connell11150
Jamaal Charles5691
Keary Colbert2380
Jerheme Urban0200
Terrance Copper0100
Jackie Battle11-10
Matt Cassel11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.79