Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play-0.094
- 44.6%Success rate38.8%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.64CPOE-1.61
- 30.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.06
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/25 | 208 | 4 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 5 | 63 | 2 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/36 | 119 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Keary Colbert | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79