Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.091
- 41.7%Success rate40.3%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.4%Explosive rate5.4%
- -2.19CPOE-4.62
- 35.5%Third-down rate38.1%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.55Points / drive1.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 5/12 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 10/15 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 25 | 121 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 19/40 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Evan Moore | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06