2011 · Week 1

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.107
  • 44.2%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.23CPOE-1.20
  • 35.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.39
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–TB
DETQ1 15:001171Field goal3–0
TBQ1 8:5831Field goal3–3
DETQ1 7:1237Opp touchdown3–10
DETQ1 5:471069Field goal6–10
TBQ1 0:5233Punt6–10
DETQ2 14:453-2Punt6–10
TBQ2 12:52642Turnover6–10
DETQ2 10:23690Touchdown13–10
TBQ2 7:1638Punt13–10
DETQ2 5:39989Touchdown20–10
TBQ2 1:16754Field goal20–13
TBQ3 15:0039Punt20–13
DETQ3 12:461266Touchdown27–13
TBQ3 6:1634Punt27–13
DETQ3 4:48512Punt27–13
TBQ3 1:4637Punt27–13
DETQ3 0:50519Punt27–13
TBQ4 13:311381Turnover on downs27–13
DETQ4 7:4838Punt27–13
TBQ4 5:271159Touchdown27–20
DETQ4 1:3532Punt27–20
TBQ4 1:07747Turnover27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3330531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best21723.40
Jerome Harrison8273.40
Nate Burleson12020.00
Tony Scheffler155.00
Maurice Morris242.00
Matthew Stafford100.00
Stefan Logan1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson610882
Nate Burleson55600
Brandon Pettigrew46570
Jahvid Best45420
Maurice Morris22250
Rashied Davis11140
Tony Scheffler11111
Maurice Stovall1180
Will Heller0100
Titus Young0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman28/4325911
Josh Johnson1/3700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Freeman4266.50
LeGarrette Blount5153.00
Earnest Graham6132.20
Josh Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow68660
Earnest Graham89580
Mike Williams410501
Preston Parker46440
Arrelious Benn47270
Dezmon Briscoe22140
Kregg Lumpkin1190
Luke Stocker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.45