2011 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.107
- 44.2%Success rate43.0%
- +0.101EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.23CPOE-1.20
- 35.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.98Points / drive1.39
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/33 | 305 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 10 | 88 | 2 |
| Nate Burleson | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Maurice Stovall | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 28/43 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 8 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 10 | 50 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.45