2011 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Kerry Collins

7·34

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -9

Total

44

Model margin

+4.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.024
  • 39.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.066
  • 6.8%Explosive rate11.9%
  • -4.66CPOE-0.14
  • 34.4%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.05Points / drive2.04
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00221Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:03512Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:591273Field goal0–3
INDQ1 4:271-7Turnover0–3
HOUQ1 4:13312Touchdown0–10
INDQ1 2:5610Turnover0–10
HOUQ1 2:49318Touchdown0–17
INDQ1 1:41746Punt0–17
HOUQ2 12:511089Touchdown0–24
INDQ2 6:573-2Punt0–24
HOUQ2 5:25946Field goal0–27
INDQ2 1:34413Opp touchdown0–34
INDQ2 0:54210End of half0–34
INDQ3 15:00751Punt0–34
HOUQ3 11:54626Punt0–34
INDQ3 8:23736Punt0–34
HOUQ3 5:301176Turnover0–34
INDQ4 14:17829Missed field goal0–34
HOUQ4 10:391-4Turnover0–34
INDQ4 10:2728Touchdown7–34
HOUQ4 9:1736Punt7–34
INDQ4 6:57740Turnover on downs7–34
HOUQ4 4:49424End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins16/3119710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai8394.90
Delone Carter7253.60
Kerry Collins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne7111061
Dallas Clark45390
Pierre Garcon36390
Joseph Addai24130
Jacob Tamme0100
Austin Collie0300

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub17/2422012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate241164.81
Derrick Ward11393.51
Steve Slaton2126.00
Matt Schaub400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson711951
Jacoby Jones33430
James Casey33290
Joel Dreessen11210
Kevin Walter12140
Owen Daniels12120
Steve Slaton1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.10