Closing spread
HOU -9
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.024
- 39.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.066
- 6.8%Explosive rate11.9%
- -4.66CPOE-0.14
- 34.4%Third-down rate41.5%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.05Points / drive2.04
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 16/31 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 17/24 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 24 | 116 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Steve Slaton | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 11 | 95 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| James Casey | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.10