Closing spread
NE -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play-0.033
- 51.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.301EPA / dropback+0.032
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.5%
- +3.92CPOE+2.28
- 46.4%Third-down rate33.1%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 2.61Points / drive1.63
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/48 | 517 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 12 | 160 | 2 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 10 | 103 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 7 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Matthew Slater | 1 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 30/49 | 416 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 13 | 139 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 8 | 92 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.34