2011 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

38·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.193EPA / play-0.033
  • 51.2%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.301EPA / dropback+0.032
  • +0.019EPA / rush-0.116
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +3.92CPOE+2.28
  • 46.4%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 69.3%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 2.61Points / drive1.63
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001494Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 7:42773Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 4:1439Punt7–7
NEQ1 2:03870Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 14:09631Punt14–7
NEQ2 10:341149Punt14–7
MIAQ2 6:3431Punt14–7
NEQ2 5:3031Punt14–7
MIAQ2 4:31534Punt14–7
NEQ2 1:53970Missed field goal14–7
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half14–7
NEQ3 15:00424Turnover14–7
MIAQ3 13:1329Touchdown14–14
NEQ3 12:291068Touchdown21–14
MIAQ3 8:23991Field goal21–17
NEQ3 3:36988Touchdown28–17
MIAQ3 0:10311Punt28–17
NEQ4 14:37862Field goal31–17
MIAQ4 11:023-4Punt31–17
NEQ4 9:4934Punt31–17
MIAQ4 8:481076Turnover on downs37–17
NEQ4 5:57199Touchdown38–17
MIAQ4 5:44874Touchdown38–24
NEQ4 3:39314Punt38–24
MIAQ4 2:32963Turnover38–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/4851741

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead14694.90
BenJarvus Green-Ellis7344.91
Tom Brady133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker8121602
Aaron Hernandez7101031
Deion Branch79930
Rob Gronkowski67861
Matthew Slater12460
Chad Johnson13140
Julian Edelman1290
Danny Woodhead1160
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne30/4941621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chad Henne7598.41
Reggie Bush11383.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall7131390
Davone Bess58920
Anthony Fasano56820
Reggie Bush910561
Brian Hartline47471
Clyde Gates0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.34