2011 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

14·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Luke McCown

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

38

Model margin

+4.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.173
  • 39.2%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback-0.210
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.127
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.91CPOE-11.15
  • 35.9%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.10
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:591163Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 6:4935Punt0–7
JAXQ1 5:15613Punt0–7
TENQ1 2:10940Punt0–7
JAXQ2 12:451150Field goal0–10
TENQ2 5:55437Punt0–10
JAXQ2 3:4635Punt0–10
TENQ2 2:234-6Punt0–10
JAXQ2 1:3738Punt0–10
TENQ2 0:14212Missed field goal0–10
JAXQ3 15:00735Turnover0–10
TENQ3 10:4530Punt0–10
JAXQ3 10:201356Field goal0–13
TENQ3 2:33180Touchdown7–13
JAXQ3 2:181054Field goal7–16
TENQ4 12:2239Punt7–16
JAXQ4 11:0037Punt7–16
TENQ4 9:161471Touchdown14–16
JAXQ4 3:34633Punt14–16
TENQ4 1:45543Turnover14–16
JAXQ4 0:1600End of half14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck21/3426321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson9242.70
Jamie Harper3103.30
Matt Hasselbeck199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt5101362
Nate Washington67670
Chris Johnson67250
Jamie Harper11210
Jared Cook1270
Damian Williams1250
Craig Stevens1320
Marc Mariani0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Luke McCown17/2417500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew24974.01
Deji Karim14332.40
Montell Owens3175.70
Luke McCown5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas811550
Jason Hill45530
Deji Karim33390
Marcedes Lewis23280
Brock Bolen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.90