Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
38
Model margin
+4.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.173
- 39.2%Success rate36.3%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.127
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.91CPOE-11.15
- 35.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.51Points / drive1.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/34 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 10 | 136 | 2 |
| Nate Washington | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 17/24 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 97 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Deji Karim | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 8 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.90