2011 · Week 2

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Luke McCown

3·32

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -9

Total

38

Model margin

+0.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • -0.173EPA / play-0.072
  • 36.3%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.088
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -11.15CPOE-3.75
  • 34.3%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.10Points / drive1.44
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00665Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:373-9Safety0–9
NYJQ1 10:3323Turnover0–9
JAXQ1 9:4142Punt0–9
NYJQ1 8:0039Punt0–9
JAXQ1 5:54520Field goal3–9
NYJQ1 3:02739Field goal3–12
JAXQ2 13:28626Punt3–12
NYJQ2 11:07725Turnover3–12
JAXQ2 7:41432Turnover3–12
NYJQ2 5:58726Punt3–12
JAXQ2 2:28424Turnover3–12
NYJQ2 1:2036Field goal3–15
JAXQ2 0:2612End of half3–15
JAXQ3 15:00425Punt3–15
NYJQ3 12:4040Punt3–15
JAXQ3 10:4547Punt3–15
NYJQ3 9:08982Touchdown3–22
JAXQ3 3:5037Turnover3–22
NYJQ3 2:0821Touchdown3–29
JAXQ3 1:3010Turnover3–29
NYJQ3 1:21513Field goal3–32
JAXQ4 14:03946Turnover on downs3–32
NYJQ4 9:1536Punt3–32
JAXQ4 7:00617Punt3–32
NYJQ4 2:4138Punt3–32
JAXQ4 0:2714End of half3–32

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Luke McCown6/195904
Blaine Gabbert5/65200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew18884.90
Deji Karim6152.50
Luke McCown144.00
Brock Bolen144.00
Blaine Gabbert111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas310290
Zach Miller34280
Jarett Dillard12250
Maurice Jones-Drew34190
Deji Karim11100
Kassim Osgood0100
Cecil Shorts0100
Jamar Newsome0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/2418222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene16493.11
Mark Sanchez3299.70
Joe McKnight6142.30
LaDainian Tomlinson681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller661011
Santonio Holmes34421
Matthew Mulligan2380
Derrick Mason1270
LaDainian Tomlinson1270
Shonn Greene2260
Jeff Cumberland1220
Plaxico Burress0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95