Closing spread
NYJ -9
Total
38
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.072
- 36.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.210EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.088
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- -11.15CPOE-3.75
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.5%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.10Points / drive1.44
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 6/19 | 59 | 0 | 4 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5/6 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/24 | 182 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95