Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.129
- 44.9%Success rate39.3%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.182
- 10.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- +3.03CPOE-4.66
- 45.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 1.78Points / drive1.05
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/37 | 364 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 37 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 7 | 144 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 13/29 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 5/11 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Delone Carter | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 13 | 24 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.16