2011 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Kerry Collins

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -10.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.9%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.182
  • 10.4%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +3.03CPOE-4.66
  • 45.1%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.05
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–IND
PITQ1 15:00650Field goal3–0
INDQ1 12:43615Punt3–0
PITQ1 9:56624Punt3–0
INDQ1 6:34639Punt3–0
PITQ1 4:22286Touchdown10–0
INDQ1 3:2931Punt10–0
PITQ1 1:49931Turnover10–0
INDQ2 11:581256Field goal10–3
PITQ2 6:14837Opp touchdown10–10
PITQ2 1:4610Turnover10–10
INDQ2 1:3435Field goal10–13
PITQ2 0:1500End of half10–13
INDQ3 15:00921Punt10–13
PITQ3 11:331268Missed field goal10–13
INDQ3 4:1834Punt10–13
PITQ3 2:501158Field goal13–13
INDQ4 12:1036Punt13–13
PITQ4 10:444-7Punt13–13
INDQ4 9:30516Punt13–13
PITQ4 7:2932Punt13–13
INDQ4 6:032-2Opp touchdown20–13
INDQ4 5:131080Touchdown20–20
PITQ4 2:09960Field goal23–20
INDQ4 0:0410End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger25/3736411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall18372.10
Ben Roethlisberger5153.00
Mewelde Moore294.50
Isaac Redman362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace571441
Antonio Brown48750
Heath Miller56710
Mewelde Moore11220
Emmanuel Sanders25210
Hines Ward34170
Rashard Mendenhall3490
David Johnson1130
Weslye Saunders1120

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins13/299300
Curtis Painter5/116000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai17865.11
Delone Carter4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon610820
Austin Collie57290
Reggie Wayne313240
Dallas Clark26120
Brody Eldridge1140
Joseph Addai1220
Delone Carter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.16