2011 · Week 4

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

30·28

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ATL -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.069
  • 43.6%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.118
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.80CPOE+0.03
  • 45.0%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.31
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:481272Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 6:08537Punt7–0
ATLQ1 3:52842Punt7–0
SEAQ2 14:0565Turnover7–0
ATLQ2 11:44437Touchdown14–0
SEAQ2 10:13484Touchdown14–7
ATLQ2 8:461172Touchdown21–7
SEAQ2 2:4834Punt21–7
ATLQ2 1:43833Field goal24–7
SEAQ2 0:2510End of half24–7
ATLQ3 15:00448Field goal27–7
SEAQ3 13:401061Touchdown27–14
ATLQ3 10:01521Punt27–14
SEAQ3 7:02555Turnover27–14
ATLQ3 4:483-1Punt27–20
SEAQ3 3:12111Touchdown27–21
ATLQ3 3:071352Field goal30–21
SEAQ4 11:38960Touchdown30–28
ATLQ4 8:131237Punt30–28
SEAQ4 1:49747Missed field goal30–28
ATLQ4 0:0800End of half30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4229110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner26702.72
Matt Ryan4266.50
Jacquizz Rodgers6254.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones11171270
Roddy White611780
Tony Gonzalez79561
Michael Turner22180
Jacquizz Rodgers11100
Michael Palmer1120

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson25/3831932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch8243.01
Tarvaris Jackson2168.00
Justin Forsett3113.70
Leon Washington221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin56840
Sidney Rice36791
Mike Williams35361
Marshawn Lynch34330
Justin Forsett34300
Ben Obomanu34251
Zach Miller36210
Leon Washington1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.22