Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.069
- 43.6%Success rate38.9%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.80CPOE+0.03
- 45.0%Third-down rate33.6%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.86Points / drive1.31
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/42 | 291 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 26 | 70 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 17 | 127 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 25/38 | 319 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.22