Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.091
- 39.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.7%Explosive rate5.4%
- -1.91CPOE-4.62
- 35.9%Third-down rate38.1%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.09
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 10/20 | 220 | 3 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 2 | 6 | 93 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 40/61 | 350 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 9 | 48 | 1 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 6 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.99