2011 · Week 4

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

31·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 24mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.091
  • 39.2%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.7%Explosive rate5.4%
  • -1.91CPOE-4.62
  • 35.9%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.09
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00941Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:1633Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:07422Field goal0–3
TENQ1 6:48660Touchdown7–3
CLEQ1 3:25942Field goal7–6
TENQ2 14:17180Touchdown14–6
CLEQ2 13:59739Punt14–6
TENQ2 10:0536Punt14–6
TENQ2 8:2500Punt14–6
CLEQ2 8:20414Turnover on downs14–6
TENQ2 6:02615Punt14–6
CLEQ2 2:5659Punt14–6
TENQ2 1:34478Touchdown21–6
CLEQ2 0:33316End of half21–6
TENQ3 15:0038Punt21–6
CLEQ3 13:3039Punt21–6
TENQ3 11:441046Field goal24–6
CLEQ3 6:45853Opp touchdown31–6
CLEQ3 2:281584Touchdown31–13
TENQ4 11:36520Turnover31–13
CLEQ4 9:2141Turnover on downs31–13
TENQ4 8:293-2Punt31–13
CLEQ4 6:491150Turnover on downs31–13
TENQ4 3:50618Punt31–13
CLEQ4 1:49636End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck10/2022031
Jake Locker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson231014.40
Matt Hasselbeck155.00
Javon Ringer441.00
Jamie Harper122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook26931
Nate Washington24620
Lavelle Hawkins24380
Craig Stevens11121
Chris Johnson22110
Damian Williams1441

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy40/6135011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis10464.60
Montario Hardesty7223.10
Colt McCoy4164.00
Armond Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little68570
Josh Cribbs58500
Montario Hardesty59490
Benjamin Watson69481
Mohamed Massaquoi69460
Brian Robiskie33250
Peyton Hillis56230
Jordan Norwood11190
Evan Moore12150
Alex Smith12130
Owen Marecic1150
Armond Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.99