2011 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

30·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

37

Model margin

+2.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.173
  • 41.7%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.210
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.127
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -2.19CPOE-11.15
  • 35.5%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.10
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:351269Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 3:17624Punt7–7
CINQ2 14:2620Turnover7–7
JAXQ2 13:3431Field goal7–10
CINQ2 12:013-14Punt7–10
JAXQ2 10:14748Field goal7–13
CINQ2 7:0635Punt7–13
JAXQ2 4:5733Punt7–13
CINQ2 3:561167Touchdown13–13
JAXQ2 0:1400End of half13–13
CINQ3 15:00729Punt13–13
JAXQ3 10:3033Punt13–13
CINQ3 8:54620Punt13–13
JAXQ3 5:1331Punt13–13
CINQ3 3:1730Punt13–13
JAXQ3 2:37933Punt13–13
CINQ4 14:0037Punt13–13
JAXQ4 12:283-9Punt13–13
CINQ4 11:0738Field goal16–13
JAXQ4 9:41380Touchdown16–20
CINQ4 8:24420Punt16–20
JAXQ4 6:5234Punt16–20
CINQ4 5:14723Touchdown23–20
JAXQ4 1:5639Turnover23–20
CINQ4 1:1345Turnover on downs29–20
JAXQ4 0:07120Opp touchdown30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3317921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson24532.20
Bernard Scott6203.31
Brian Leonard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green58901
Jerome Simpson47400
Jermaine Gresham57211
Andre Caldwell24130
Brian Leonard13100
Andrew Hawkins2260
Bernard Scott22-10

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert15/2822110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew19854.51
Blaine Gabbert5112.20
Deji Karim242.00
Mike Thomas1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Hill581181
Mike Thomas37530
Deji Karim34270
Marcedes Lewis1460
Brock Bolen1140
Jarett Dillard1130
Chastin West0100
Cecil Shorts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.58