Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
37
Model margin
+2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.173
- 41.7%Success rate36.3%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.127
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- -2.19CPOE-11.15
- 35.5%Third-down rate34.3%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.55Points / drive1.10
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/33 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 53 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 7 | 21 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 15/28 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Hill | 5 | 8 | 118 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58