2011 · Week 5

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

25·14

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

53.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.230EPA / play+0.046
  • 48.2%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.405EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.087
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +8.47CPOE+1.80
  • 48.7%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.86
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001385Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 8:15951Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 3:311060Touchdown0–14
GBQ2 12:261270Field goal3–14
ATLQ2 5:2640Punt3–14
GBQ2 4:22837Field goal6–14
ATLQ2 0:0800End of half6–14
GBQ3 15:0034Punt6–14
ATLQ3 12:53826Punt6–14
GBQ3 8:41745Field goal9–14
ATLQ3 5:28411Punt15–14
GBQ3 3:53170Touchdown15–14
ATLQ3 3:4239Punt15–14
GBQ3 2:12768Touchdown22–14
ATLQ4 14:5133Punt22–14
GBQ4 13:39516Punt22–14
ATLQ4 11:12729Turnover22–14
GBQ4 7:321166Field goal25–14
ATLQ4 1:10529Turnover25–14
GBQ4 0:3200End of half25–14

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/3939620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks12403.30
Ryan Grant7182.60
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones571401
Greg Jennings45821
Jermichael Finley47670
Randall Cobb22260
James Starks23190
Jordy Nelson37170
Tom Crabtree11150
D.J. Williams1170
Ryan Grant1160
Alex Green1160
Donald Driver1250

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/3216712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner16563.51
Julio Jones11717.00
Jacquizz Rodgers11111.00
Matt Ryan393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez68600
Roddy White69501
Harry Douglas25160
Julio Jones14160
Eric Weems1140
Jacquizz Rodgers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57