Closing spread
GB -6
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play+0.046
- 48.2%Success rate43.6%
- +0.405EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +8.47CPOE+1.80
- 48.7%Third-down rate45.0%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.85Points / drive1.86
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/39 | 396 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 5 | 7 | 140 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/32 | 167 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.57