Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jets
- OutBryan ThomasLBAchilles· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutGarrett McIntyreLBConcussion· Limited
- OutLogan PayneWRWrist· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableNick MangoldCAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCalvin PaceLBAbdomen· Limited
- ProbableAntonio CromartieCBRibs· Full
- ProbableDavid HarrisLBToe· Full
- ProbableEric SmithSTricep· Full
- ProbableMike DevitoDTShoulder· Full
- ProbableMuhammad WilkersonDEShoulder· Full
- ProbablePlaxico BurressWRElbow· Full
Patriots
- DoubtfulDanny WoodheadRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulJerod MayoLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJulian EdelmanWRAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulSebastian VollmerTBack· DNP
- QuestionableAaron HernandezTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableAlbert HaynesworthDTBack· Limited
- QuestionableJosh BarrettSThumb· Limited
- QuestionableKyle LoveDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableLeigh BoddenCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableMike WrightDEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableRas-I DowlingCBHip· Limited
- LimitedGary GuytonLBHamstring
- LimitedKyle ArringtonCBChest
- ProbableDane FletcherLBThumb· Full
- ProbablePatrick ChungSHand· Full
- ProbableShaun EllisDEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.193
- 40.3%Success rate51.2%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.088EPA / rush+0.019
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.75CPOE+3.92
- 35.5%Third-down rate46.4%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.44Points / drive2.61
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:55 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:55 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:06 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 6:15 | 10 | 25 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:21 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 11:15 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 3:21 | 13 | 81 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:45 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 11:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 8:13 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NE | Q3 5:32 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:20 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NE | Q3 0:14 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 14–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:57 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| NE | Q4 7:14 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 21–30 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:02 | 4 | 23 | End of half | 21–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 16/26 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/33 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Stevan Ridley | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 5 | 8 | 124 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.57