Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.193
- 40.3%Success rate51.2%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.088EPA / rush+0.019
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.75CPOE+3.92
- 35.5%Third-down rate46.4%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.44Points / drive2.61
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 16/26 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/33 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Stevan Ridley | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 5 | 8 | 124 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.57