Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.046
- 44.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.130
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.087
- 12.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.04CPOE+1.80
- 38.7%Third-down rate45.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.08Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/35 | 237 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 14/22 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 27 | 139 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05