2011 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·31

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+4.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.046
  • 44.8%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.130
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.087
  • 12.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.04CPOE+1.80
  • 38.7%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00630Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:451359Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 4:541049Touchdown3–7
CARQ2 15:00981Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 10:131379Touchdown10–14
CARQ2 3:49953Turnover10–14
ATLQ2 0:3037Punt10–14
CARQ3 15:001385Touchdown17–14
ATLQ3 6:28518Punt17–14
CARQ3 3:503-7Punt17–14
ATLQ3 2:30743Field goal17–17
CARQ4 14:12417Punt17–17
ATLQ4 12:251060Touchdown17–24
CARQ4 7:00218Turnover17–24
ATLQ4 6:06839Touchdown17–31
CARQ4 1:56962Turnover17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3523703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart7486.91
Cam Newton7476.71
DeAngelo Williams12443.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith57660
Jeremy Shockey47600
Greg Olsen510420
Legedu Naanee22310
Jonathan Stewart33240
Brandon LaFell11120
DeAngelo Williams1320

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan14/2216310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner271395.12
Jacquizz Rodgers188.00
Matt Ryan372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas24570
Tony Gonzalez33290
Roddy White25210
Michael Turner1380
Michael Palmer1180
Reggie Kelly1170
Jacquizz Rodgers1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.05