2011 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
NO -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
-4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play-0.107
- 51.4%Success rate43.0%
- +0.305EPA / dropback-0.081
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.164
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.3%
- +7.27CPOE-1.20
- 58.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.96Points / drive1.39
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/45 | 383 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 7 | 11 | 118 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 23/41 | 303 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 6 | 13 | 59 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Zack Pianalto | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.53