2011 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

20·26

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

-4.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.198EPA / play-0.107
  • 51.4%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback-0.081
  • +0.014EPA / rush-0.164
  • 10.8%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +7.27CPOE-1.20
  • 58.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.96Points / drive1.39
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:15514Turnover0–0
TBQ1 9:1433Field goal0–3
NOQ1 8:19679Touchdown7–3
TBQ1 5:381134Punt7–3
NOQ1 0:2937Punt7–3
TBQ2 14:48380Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 13:1735Punt7–10
TBQ2 11:381071Field goal7–13
NOQ2 5:2632Turnover7–13
TBQ2 4:33325Touchdown7–20
NOQ2 3:40539Turnover7–20
TBQ2 2:03620Punt7–20
NOQ2 0:55592Field goal10–20
TBQ2 0:0200End of half10–20
NOQ3 15:00617Punt10–20
TBQ3 12:42753Missed field goal10–20
NOQ3 9:531059Field goal13–20
TBQ3 3:18542Field goal13–23
NOQ3 0:35872Touchdown20–23
TBQ4 12:5931Punt20–23
NOQ4 11:3131Punt20–23
TBQ4 10:00740Field goal20–26
NOQ4 7:241166Turnover20–26
TBQ4 3:16537End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4538313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram9222.41
Drew Brees3217.00
Darren Sproles11616.00
Pierre Thomas7111.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham7111240
Marques Colston7111181
Lance Moore23460
Darren Sproles811460
Robert Meachem12230
Devery Henderson12120
Mark Ingram1160
Pierre Thomas1150
John Gilmore0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman23/4130320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Earnest Graham171096.40
Kregg Lumpkin2136.50
Josh Freeman430.80
Preston Parker1-3-3.00
Arrelious Benn1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arrelious Benn36831
Mike Williams613590
Dezmon Briscoe22490
Kellen Winslow510400
Preston Parker25321
Earnest Graham22220
Zack Pianalto1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

37.1%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.53