Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.046
- 44.6%Success rate39.2%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.170
- 11.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.14CPOE-1.91
- 41.5%Third-down rate35.9%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.04Points / drive1.51
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/23 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 25 | 115 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Ben Tate | 15 | 104 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 5 | 5 | 119 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 14/30 | 104 | 1 | 2 |
| Jake Locker | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Ringer | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.00