2011 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

41·7

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

44

Model margin

+1.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.024EPA / play-0.046
  • 44.6%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.170
  • 11.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.14CPOE-1.91
  • 41.5%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.51
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:0265Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:42416Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:3733Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:431373Field goal3–0
TENQ1 1:25948Turnover3–0
HOUQ2 10:53776Touchdown10–0
TENQ2 7:24520Punt10–0
HOUQ2 5:41494Touchdown17–0
TENQ2 3:533-3Punt17–0
HOUQ2 1:52637Field goal20–0
TENQ3 15:00610Punt20–0
HOUQ3 12:34792Touchdown27–0
TENQ3 9:06866Touchdown27–7
HOUQ3 5:34944Turnover on downs27–7
TENQ3 0:223-12Punt27–7
HOUQ4 14:53852Touchdown34–7
TENQ4 9:5120Opp touchdown41–7
TENQ4 9:2837Punt41–7
HOUQ4 7:551027Turnover on downs41–7
TENQ4 1:0924End of half41–7

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub18/2329620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster251154.62
Ben Tate151046.90
Derrick Ward571.40
Jacoby Jones1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arian Foster551191
Owen Daniels45710
Kevin Walter34350
Joel Dreessen22311
Jacoby Jones24270
Derrick Mason1170
Bryant Johnson1160

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck14/3010412
Jake Locker1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javon Ringer33110.30
Chris Johnson10181.80
Jamie Harper242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Johnson66270
Lavelle Hawkins37240
Jared Cook22221
Javon Ringer11170
Craig Stevens11110
Nate Washington13100
Damian Williams1450
Daniel Graham0100
Donnie Avery0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.00