2011 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

27·11

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 57°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.000
  • 40.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.088EPA / rush-0.023
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.75CPOE+0.64
  • 35.5%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.56
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:531692Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 2:44740Punt0–0
NYJQ2 13:36744Punt0–0
BUFQ2 9:0634Punt0–0
NYJQ2 8:11944Field goal3–0
BUFQ2 2:55412Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 1:27312Missed field goal3–0
BUFQ2 1:0420Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 0:5310Turnover3–0
BUFQ2 0:4948Turnover on downs3–0
NYJQ2 0:2500End of half3–0
NYJQ3 15:0038Punt3–0
BUFQ3 12:4734Punt3–0
NYJQ3 11:0638Field goal6–0
BUFQ3 10:1610Turnover6–0
NYJQ3 10:04319Touchdown13–0
BUFQ3 8:34774Field goal13–3
NYJQ3 4:47437Touchdown20–3
BUFQ3 3:27856Turnover on downs20–3
NYJQ4 14:251567Touchdown27–3
BUFQ4 6:271380Touchdown27–11
NYJQ4 3:1400End of half27–11
NYJQ4 3:09420End of half27–11
NYJQ4 0:0000End of half27–11

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez20/2823011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene19764.00
Joe McKnight9273.00
LaDainian Tomlinson5183.61
Mark Sanchez4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress55790
Dustin Keller47640
LaDainian Tomlinson33300
Santonio Holmes36291
Jeremy Kerley45230
Josh Baker1150
Joe McKnight0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/3119112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson18824.60
Ryan Fitzpatrick294.50
C.J. Spiller252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson36840
Fred Jackson38380
David Nelson47361
Scott Chandler33240
Donald Jones1460
Naaman Roosevelt1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.04