Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.000
- 40.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.023
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.75CPOE+0.64
- 35.5%Third-down rate30.9%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.56
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 20/28 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Baker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/31 | 191 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.04