2011 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

16·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -9

Total

50.5

Model margin

+8.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.198
  • 43.0%Success rate51.4%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.164EPA / rush+0.014
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -1.20CPOE+7.27
  • 37.0%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.96
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
TBQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NOQ1 14:041038Missed field goal0–0
TBQ1 9:22734Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 5:07566Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 2:27867Punt0–7
NOQ2 12:09685Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 8:34617Punt0–14
NOQ2 5:32623Punt0–14
TBQ2 2:37453Field goal3–14
NOQ2 1:39776Field goal3–17
NOQ3 15:00519Turnover3–17
TBQ3 12:32513Field goal6–17
NOQ3 9:291371Touchdown6–24
TBQ3 3:111682Field goal9–24
NOQ4 11:0832Punt9–24
TBQ4 9:371050Touchdown16–24
NOQ4 5:331073Field goal16–27
TBQ4 1:17546End of half16–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman27/3728110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13725.50
Josh Freeman382.70
Kregg Lumpkin273.50
Josh Johnson111.00
Arrelious Benn1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Parker34560
Mike Williams68460
Dezmon Briscoe12460
Kregg Lumpkin46310
Kellen Winslow46291
Zack Pianalto22240
Arrelious Benn22220
LeGarrette Blount2380
Micheal Spurlock1170

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3625821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory15674.50
Pierre Thomas8668.31
Darren Sproles44210.50
Drew Brees12020.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham68780
Darren Sproles56571
Marques Colston55520
Pierre Thomas45250
Lance Moore33201
Devery Henderson23130
John Gilmore1290
David Thomas1140
Robert Meachem0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +95.3%6.9%3.1%5.0%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.1%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+8.95