2011 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -9
Total
50.5
Model margin
+8.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.198
- 43.0%Success rate51.4%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.164EPA / rush+0.014
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- -1.20CPOE+7.27
- 37.0%Third-down rate58.6%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.39Points / drive2.96
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 27/37 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parker | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 1 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Zack Pianalto | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/36 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+8.95