2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

17·3

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.173EPA / play-0.129
  • 36.3%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.182
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -11.15CPOE-4.66
  • 34.3%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 1.10Points / drive1.05
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:003-1Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 14:382-2Turnover0–0
INDQ1 13:45433Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:15517Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:123-4Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:28735Field goal3–0
INDQ1 2:44763Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 14:20412Punt3–3
INDQ2 12:486-2Punt3–3
JAXQ2 10:09521Punt3–3
INDQ2 6:4436Punt3–3
JAXQ2 4:373-2Punt3–3
INDQ2 3:2537Punt3–3
JAXQ2 1:44550Missed field goal3–3
INDQ2 0:0200End of half3–3
JAXQ3 15:0034Punt3–3
INDQ3 13:0432Punt3–3
JAXQ3 11:291681Touchdown10–3
INDQ3 1:491249Turnover10–3
JAXQ4 11:29830Punt10–3
INDQ4 5:5532Turnover10–3
JAXQ4 4:4838Touchdown17–3
INDQ4 3:521058Turnover on downs17–3
JAXQ4 1:4400End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert14/2111811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew251144.61
Mike Thomas11212.00
Blaine Gabbert681.30
Deji Karim970.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chastin West35390
Jarett Dillard22301
Deji Karim33250
Maurice Jones-Drew33230
Zach Potter1240
Mike Thomas1110
Kassim Osgood0100
Jason Hill0100
Marcedes Lewis13-40

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter13/199402
Dan Orlovsky7/106700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown14533.80
Pierre Garcon11818.00
Delone Carter6142.30
Curtis Painter2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme68750
Austin Collie45310
Pierre Garcon36300
Reggie Wayne36130
Donald Brown44120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.79