Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.129
- 36.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.210EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.182
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- -11.15CPOE-4.66
- 34.3%Third-down rate34.4%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 1.10Points / drive1.05
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 14/21 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chastin West | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Deji Karim | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 13/19 | 94 | 0 | 2 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 7/10 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.79