2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

37·16

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

47

Model margin

+0.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.193EPA / play-0.072
  • 51.2%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.301EPA / dropback-0.061
  • +0.019EPA / rush-0.088
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +3.92CPOE-3.75
  • 46.4%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 69.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.61Points / drive1.44
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00761Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 11:34853Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 8:10511Punt3–0
NEQ1 5:34655Field goal6–0
NYJQ1 2:31617Punt6–0
NEQ2 13:53420Punt6–0
NYJQ2 12:59749Punt6–0
NEQ2 9:12412Punt6–0
NYJQ2 6:554-6Punt6–0
NEQ2 5:2230Safety6–2
NYJQ2 4:44760Touchdown6–9
NEQ2 1:20765Touchdown13–9
NYJQ2 0:0900End of half13–9
NEQ3 15:0033Punt13–9
NYJQ3 13:1930Punt13–9
NEQ3 12:5739Punt13–9
NEQ3 11:2549Field goal16–9
NYJQ3 9:55423Turnover16–9
NEQ3 7:36857Touchdown23–9
NYJQ3 4:441071Touchdown23–16
NEQ4 14:551384Touchdown30–16
NYJQ4 8:0430Opp touchdown37–16
NYJQ4 7:45641Turnover on downs37–16
NEQ4 6:00623Turnover on downs37–16
NYJQ4 2:27952Turnover on downs37–16
NEQ4 0:4100End of half37–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3932930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead7385.40
Kevin Faulk581.60
BenJarvus Green-Ellis881.00
Stevan Ridley540.80
Tom Brady320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski8111132
Chad Johnson22650
Deion Branch59581
Wes Welker68460
Aaron Hernandez45410
Danny Woodhead1360

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez20/3930612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene13614.70
LaDainian Tomlinson7385.40
Mark Sanchez5112.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes68930
Jeremy Kerley48790
Plaxico Burress38391
Dustin Keller24370
LaDainian Tomlinson25220
Patrick Turner11220
Shonn Greene24140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.41