Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play-0.072
- 51.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.301EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.088
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- +3.92CPOE-3.75
- 46.4%Third-down rate35.5%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.61Points / drive1.44
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/39 | 329 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 11 | 113 | 2 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 65 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 5 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 20/39 | 306 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 6 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.41