2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

26·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.198EPA / play+0.046
  • 51.4%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback+0.130
  • +0.014EPA / rush-0.087
  • 10.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +7.27CPOE+1.80
  • 58.6%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.96Points / drive1.86
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001761Field goal0–3
NOQ1 6:20730Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 2:4839Punt3–3
NOQ1 1:0732Punt3–3
ATLQ2 14:46845Field goal3–6
NOQ2 9:25632Punt3–6
ATLQ2 6:3044Punt3–6
NOQ2 3:35350Touchdown10–6
ATLQ2 2:3439Punt10–6
NOQ2 1:4737Punt10–6
ATLQ2 1:05771Missed field goal10–6
NOQ3 15:00660Missed field goal10–6
ATLQ3 11:121070Touchdown10–13
NOQ3 5:08777Touchdown17–13
ATLQ3 1:31421Turnover17–13
NOQ4 14:5366Field goal20–13
ATLQ4 11:57412Punt20–13
NOQ4 10:48857Field goal23–13
ATLQ4 7:13981Touchdown23–20
NOQ4 4:13612Punt23–20
ATLQ4 1:551281Field goal23–23
ATLOT38Punt23–23
NOOT39Punt23–23
ATLOT49Turnover on downs23–23
NOOT321Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/4332220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas6294.80
Mark Ingram8111.40
Darren Sproles210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston891130
Jimmy Graham712821
Robert Meachem22691
Lance Moore13280
Pierre Thomas4590
David Thomas2240
Mark Ingram1130
Darren Sproles4620
Devery Henderson0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/5235121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner22964.40
Jacquizz Rodgers7304.30
Matt Ryan199.00
Harry Douglas133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas8141330
Tony Gonzalez610711
Roddy White47620
Eric Weems35250
Michael Turner12100
Julio Jones2590
Jacquizz Rodgers1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53