Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play+0.046
- 51.4%Success rate43.6%
- +0.305EPA / dropback+0.130
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +7.27CPOE+1.80
- 58.6%Third-down rate45.0%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.96Points / drive1.86
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/43 | 322 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 12 | 82 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 69 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/52 | 351 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 8 | 14 | 133 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53