2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

24·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.030
  • 44.9%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.080
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.03CPOE-2.19
  • 45.1%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.55
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:30854Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 9:1536Punt7–0
PITQ1 8:11978Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 3:37779Touchdown14–7
PITQ1 0:14313Turnover14–7
CINQ2 14:43615Field goal14–10
PITQ2 12:0230Punt14–10
CINQ2 10:08516Punt14–10
PITQ2 7:361677Field goal17–10
CINQ2 0:5833Punt17–10
PITQ3 15:0031Punt17–10
CINQ3 13:251166Touchdown17–17
PITQ3 8:381176Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 1:55731Punt24–17
PITQ4 14:043-2Punt24–17
CINQ4 12:2210Turnover24–17
PITQ4 12:1636Punt24–17
CINQ4 10:38837Punt24–17
PITQ4 6:2432Punt24–17
CINQ4 4:28424Turnover24–17
PITQ4 2:27318End of half24–17
PITQ4 2:0017End of half24–17
PITQ4 0:0000End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3324511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall16442.82
Mike Wallace23115.50
Isaac Redman7253.60
Mewelde Moore273.50
Ben Roethlisberger3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown56860
Mike Wallace610540
Heath Miller35310
Jerricho Cotchery24291
Rashard Mendenhall13260
Weslye Saunders12110
Hines Ward11100
David Johnson1160
Isaac Redman11-80

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/3017022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson15573.80
Bernard Scott7385.40
A.J. Green177.00
Andrew Hawkins144.00
Brian Leonard231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins56560
A.J. Green12361
Andre Caldwell38250
Colin Cochart11250
Jermaine Gresham45231
Cedric Benson1150
Jerome Simpson0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.35