Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.030
- 44.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.080
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.03CPOE-2.19
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.5%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.78Points / drive1.55
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/33 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/30 | 170 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Colin Cochart | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.35