2011 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

8·35

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.000EPA / play-0.033
  • 44.6%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.116
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +0.64CPOE+2.28
  • 30.9%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.63
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
BUFQ1 15:00870Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 10:131287Touchdown3–7
BUFQ1 3:2838Punt3–7
MIAQ1 2:38459Touchdown3–14
BUFQ1 0:5832Turnover3–14
MIAQ2 14:54523Touchdown3–21
BUFQ2 12:4534Punt3–21
MIAQ2 10:49415Punt3–21
BUFQ2 8:2137Punt3–21
MIAQ2 6:5365Punt3–21
BUFQ2 3:1030Turnover3–21
MIAQ2 2:0862Touchdown3–28
BUFQ2 1:36539Field goal6–28
MIAQ3 15:00416Punt6–28
BUFQ3 12:32522Opp touchdown6–35
BUFQ3 10:081135Turnover on downs6–35
MIAQ3 4:15414Punt6–35
BUFQ3 1:39848Turnover on downs8–35
MIAQ4 13:391-1Safety8–35
BUFQ4 13:256-2Punt8–35
MIAQ4 10:5633Punt8–35
BUFQ4 9:1330Punt8–35
MIAQ4 8:4236Punt8–35
BUFQ4 6:1938Punt8–35
MIAQ4 4:47613Punt8–35
BUFQ4 0:2214End of half8–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3920902
Tyler Thigpen1/5600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson7172.40
Ryan Fitzpatrick7162.30
Johnny White263.00
C.J. Spiller320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Chandler56710
Fred Jackson55500
Brad Smith34350
Naaman Roosevelt22280
C.J. Spiller24180
Steve Johnson28160
Ruvell Martin0200
David Nelson1400
Donald Jones0100
Johnny White14-30

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore14/2016030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas15503.30
Reggie Bush15322.11
Brian Hartline199.00
Matt Moore320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay44691
Reggie Bush45340
Davone Bess23251
Brian Hartline12190
Anthony Fasano2281
Brandon Marshall1350
Daniel Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.00