Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play-0.033
- 44.6%Success rate39.0%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.5%
- +0.64CPOE+2.28
- 30.9%Third-down rate33.1%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 1.56Points / drive1.63
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/39 | 209 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1/5 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 14/20 | 160 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 4 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00