2011 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

24·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.7%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.057
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.19CPOE-1.68
  • 35.5%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.79
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 14:0138Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:32871Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 8:17619Punt7–0
CINQ1 4:1969Punt7–0
BALQ1 0:2834Punt7–0
CINQ2 14:0432Punt7–0
BALQ2 13:05455Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 11:1730Punt7–7
BALQ2 10:56566Touchdown7–14
CINQ2 8:33830Punt7–14
BALQ2 4:473-3Punt7–14
CINQ2 3:2132Punt7–14
BALQ2 2:27641Turnover7–14
CINQ2 1:24522Turnover7–14
BALQ2 0:1900End of half7–14
BALQ3 15:00776Field goal7–17
CINQ3 10:50780Touchdown14–17
BALQ3 6:5138Punt14–17
CINQ3 5:33410Punt14–17
BALQ3 4:02527Punt14–17
CINQ3 2:00320Turnover14–23
BALQ3 0:4012Touchdown14–24
CINQ3 0:36414Turnover14–30
BALQ4 14:10138Touchdown14–31
CINQ4 14:02695Touchdown21–31
BALQ4 10:5938Punt21–31
CINQ4 8:571047Field goal24–31
BALQ4 5:32526Punt24–31
CINQ4 2:27874Turnover on downs24–31
BALQ4 0:2800End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/4537313
Bernard Scott0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson15412.72
Bernard Scott9404.40
Andy Dalton4328.00
Brian Leonard263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson8131520
Andre Caldwell39631
Brian Leonard55570
Jermaine Gresham36480
Andrew Hawkins48470
Colin Cochart1260
Cedric Benson0100
Bernard Scott0100
Andy Dalton0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/2727021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice201045.22
Ricky Williams530.60
Joe Flacco3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith671651
Ray Rice510430
Anquan Boldin12351
Ed Dickson23210
Ricky Williams1250
Lee Evans0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26