Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.041
- 41.7%Success rate41.6%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.057
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.19CPOE-1.68
- 35.5%Third-down rate42.5%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.55Points / drive1.79
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/45 | 373 | 1 | 3 |
| Bernard Scott | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Bernard Scott | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 8 | 13 | 152 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Colin Cochart | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/27 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 104 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 7 | 165 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26