Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play-0.072
- 44.6%Success rate40.3%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.8%
- +0.64CPOE-3.75
- 30.9%Third-down rate35.5%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.56Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 26/39 | 264 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Smith | 4 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 13 | 75 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 5 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/35 | 180 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 8 | 61 | 2 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 9 | 22 | 1 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.62