2011 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

24·28

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -9.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.000EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.6%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.088
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +0.64CPOE-3.75
  • 30.9%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.44
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:0131Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:08626Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:251695Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 1:381073Touchdown7–7
BUFQ2 12:02828Punt7–7
NYJQ2 7:1432Punt7–7
BUFQ2 6:1540Punt7–7
NYJQ2 4:1822Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 3:31320Touchdown14–7
NYJQ2 2:06421Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 1:033-8Punt14–14
NYJQ2 0:38425End of half14–14
BUFQ3 15:00939Punt14–14
NYJQ3 8:54880Touchdown14–21
BUFQ3 3:5038Punt20–21
BUFQ3 2:19136Touchdown21–21
NYJQ3 2:1130Punt21–21
BUFQ3 1:381362Field goal24–21
NYJQ4 9:4638Punt24–21
BUFQ4 8:0236Punt24–21
NYJQ4 5:441377Touchdown24–28
BUFQ4 1:01949Turnover on downs24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick26/3926430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller19552.90
Ryan Fitzpatrick5346.80
Brad Smith133.00
Johnny White122.00
Tashard Choice2-8-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brad Smith47771
Steve Johnson813751
Scott Chandler67500
David Nelson58471
C.J. Spiller33150
Ruvell Martin0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/3518041

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene13786.00
Santonio Holmes22814.00
Joe McKnight4215.30
Mark Sanchez252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller48612
Plaxico Burress47541
Santonio Holmes29221
Joe McKnight33190
Shonn Greene34120
Patrick Turner14120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.62