2011 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

20·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.030
  • 40.3%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.080
  • 5.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.62CPOE-2.19
  • 38.1%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.55
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00982Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:551486Turnover on downs7–0
CLEQ1 3:2239Punt7–0
CINQ1 1:51347Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 0:211466Field goal10–7
CINQ2 9:203-4Punt10–7
CLEQ2 7:1034Punt10–7
CINQ2 5:37518Punt10–7
CLEQ2 2:52512Punt10–7
CINQ2 1:3541Turnover10–7
CLEQ2 0:33414Touchdown17–7
CINQ2 0:0700End of half17–7
CINQ3 15:001170Field goal17–10
CLEQ3 8:51939Field goal20–10
CINQ3 3:50575Touchdown20–17
CLEQ3 1:22310Turnover20–17
CINQ4 14:52832Field goal20–20
CLEQ4 10:5739Punt20–20
CINQ4 8:3748Punt20–20
CLEQ4 7:413-1Punt20–20
CINQ4 6:2835Punt20–20
CLEQ4 4:52826Missed field goal20–20
CINQ4 1:51652Field goal20–23
CLEQ4 0:3844Turnover on downs20–23
CINQ4 0:1000End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy16/3415121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis19653.40
Colt McCoy6386.30
Chris Ogbonnaya3165.30
Greg Little11313.00
Josh Cribbs122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Norwood45691
Greg Little513571
Benjamin Watson24140
Josh Cribbs1480
Chris Ogbonnaya1240
Evan Moore1130
Mohamed Massaquoi0300
Peyton Hillis22-40

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3127010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson211065.01
Andy Dalton6233.80
Brian Leonard122.00
Bernard Scott410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green341100
Jermaine Gresham59681
Andrew Hawkins23270
Cedric Benson45240
Andre Caldwell33240
Jerome Simpson25150
Bernard Scott2220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.92