Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.030
- 40.3%Success rate41.7%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.080
- 5.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.62CPOE-2.19
- 38.1%Third-down rate35.5%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.09Points / drive1.55
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 16/34 | 151 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Norwood | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Greg Little | 5 | 13 | 57 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/31 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 4 | 110 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92