2011 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

13·9

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Tyler Palko

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -10.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.094
  • 44.9%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +3.03CPOE-1.61
  • 45.1%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.06
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
KCQ1 15:001057Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:40985Turnover0–3
KCQ1 6:12519Turnover0–3
PITQ1 4:2585Punt0–3
KCQ1 0:0510Turnover0–3
PITQ2 15:0034Field goal3–3
KCQ2 13:2910Turnover3–3
PITQ2 13:22719Touchdown10–3
KCQ2 10:5339Punt10–3
PITQ2 9:0839Punt10–3
KCQ2 7:50838Field goal10–6
PITQ2 4:30847Field goal13–6
PITQ3 15:00843Turnover13–6
KCQ3 9:5831Punt13–6
PITQ3 8:40746Punt13–6
KCQ3 4:13920Punt13–6
PITQ3 0:20421Punt13–6
KCQ4 13:221270Field goal13–9
PITQ4 7:11613Punt13–9
KCQ4 4:121138Turnover13–9
PITQ4 0:2800End of half13–9

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3119311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall17573.40
Isaac Redman3227.30
Mewelde Moore2168.00
Ben Roethlisberger482.00
Antonio Brown252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown46810
Emmanuel Sanders24250
Hines Ward44210
Heath Miller12200
Mike Wallace26170
Rashard Mendenhall22100
Mewelde Moore3390
Isaac Redman2280
Weslye Saunders1121
Jerricho Cotchery0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Palko18/2816703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones13372.80
Dexter McCluster9283.10
Jackie Battle9202.20
Tyler Palko100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe711690
Steve Breaston48440
Jon Baldwin22260
Dexter McCluster22110
Leonard Pope1190
Thomas Jones1170
Steve Maneri1110
Anthony Becht0100
Jackie Battle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.53
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin-1.16