Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.094
- 44.9%Success rate38.8%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.03CPOE-1.61
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.7%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.06
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/31 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Palko | 18/28 | 167 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.53
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin-1.16