2011 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.107
- 44.8%Success rate43.0%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.081
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.164
- 12.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- -0.04CPOE-1.20
- 38.7%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.08Points / drive1.39
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12/21 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 1/1 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 3 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Seyi Ajirotutu | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 16/27 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mossis Madu | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.85