2011 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

38·19

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.107
  • 44.8%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.081
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.164
  • 12.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -0.04CPOE-1.20
  • 38.7%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.39
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:00783Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 11:213-15Punt7–0
CARQ1 10:00943Touchdown14–0
TBQ1 5:07641Field goal14–3
CARQ1 1:233-11Punt14–3
TBQ2 14:53618Field goal14–6
CARQ2 10:52975Touchdown21–6
TBQ2 7:04647Field goal21–9
CARQ2 4:2532Punt21–9
TBQ2 3:20737Field goal21–12
CARQ2 0:58550Field goal24–12
TBQ3 15:00950Turnover24–12
CARQ3 10:03661Touchdown31–12
TBQ3 6:29845Punt31–12
CARQ3 2:341668Touchdown38–12
TBQ4 9:48865Touchdown38–19
CARQ4 6:3531Punt38–19
TBQ4 4:014-3Turnover on downs38–19
CARQ4 2:54415End of half38–19

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton12/2120410
Legedu Naanee1/12700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart14805.71
Cam Newton14543.93
DeAngelo Williams11292.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell34640
Legedu Naanee23381
Steve Smith26320
Cam Newton11270
Jeremy Shockey11260
Greg Olsen14210
Jonathan Stewart22190
Seyi Ajirotutu1140

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson16/2722911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Johnson5459.00
Mossis Madu8253.10
LeGarrette Blount11191.70
Kregg Lumpkin210.50
Arrelious Benn1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams59930
Arrelious Benn34460
Kellen Winslow45410
Preston Parker33260
Dezmon Briscoe12231
Sammie Stroughter0100
LeGarrette Blount0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.85