2011 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

7·35

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.7%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -2.19CPOE+3.03
  • 35.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.78
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:20859Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 9:59512Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:35833Punt0–0
PITQ1 3:32987Touchdown0–7
CINQ2 12:4732Punt0–7
PITQ2 11:46420Touchdown0–14
CINQ2 10:1200Touchdown0–14
PITQ2 10:05323Touchdown0–21
CINQ2 8:331080Touchdown7–21
PITQ2 4:06618Punt7–21
CINQ2 1:4830Opp touchdown7–28
CINQ2 1:162-5End of half7–28
CINQ3 15:0059Punt7–28
PITQ3 13:0034Punt7–28
CINQ3 11:4936Punt7–28
PITQ3 10:051194Touchdown7–35
CINQ3 3:263-1Punt7–35
PITQ3 1:21837Missed field goal7–35
CINQ4 12:47610Turnover7–35
PITQ4 10:144-6Punt7–35
CINQ4 8:09839Punt7–35
PITQ4 4:0238End of half7–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton11/2413510
Bruce Gradkowski3/61701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson13524.00
Bernard Scott5306.00
A.J. Green11515.00
Andy Dalton263.00
Bruce Gradkowski111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green611871
Jermaine Gresham37370
Brian Leonard44200
Andrew Hawkins1280
Jerome Simpson0300
Bernard Scott0100
Colin Cochart0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger15/2317620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall16603.82
Isaac Redman8516.40
Mewelde Moore11313.00
Antonio Brown199.00
Jonathan Dwyer382.70
Charlie Batch3-2-0.70
Mike Wallace1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown24670
Mike Wallace35382
Hines Ward56300
Weslye Saunders11140
Heath Miller23120
David Johnson1190
Emmanuel Sanders1260
Mewelde Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.33