Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.054
- 41.7%Success rate44.9%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- -2.19CPOE+3.03
- 35.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.55Points / drive1.78
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/24 | 135 | 1 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 3/6 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Cochart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/23 | 176 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Isaac Redman | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 38 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.33