Closing spread
NE -20.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.193
- 39.3%Success rate51.2%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.182EPA / rush+0.019
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.66CPOE+3.92
- 34.4%Third-down rate46.4%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.05Points / drive2.61
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 30/37 | 353 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 9 | 12 | 150 | 2 |
| Austin Collie | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/38 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 11 | 11 | 110 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 6 | 64 | 2 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82