Closing spread
NE -20.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Colts
- OutDallas ClarkTEFibula· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutPeyton ManningQBNeck· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableAnthony GonzalezWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableBrody EldridgeTEHand· DNP
- QuestionableDrake NevisDTBack· DNP
- QuestionableJeff SaturdayCKnee· Full
- QuestionableJoe ReitzGKnee· Full
- QuestionableJoseph AddaiRBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableRyan DiemGKnee· Full
- QuestionableRyan MahaffeyTEConcussion· DNP
Patriots
- OutSebastian VollmerTBack· DNP
- DoubtfulBrandon SpikesLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAntwaun MoldenCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableDan ConnollyCGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDane FletcherLBThumb· Limited
- QuestionableDanny WoodheadRBAbdomen· Limited
- QuestionableDevin McCourtyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGary GuytonLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJames IhedigboSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRBack· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRyan WendellCCalf· Limited
- QuestionableShane VereenRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTaylor PriceWRHamstring· Limited
- LimitedMatt LightTAnkle
- ProbableChad JohnsonWRHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.193
- 39.3%Success rate51.2%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.182EPA / rush+0.019
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.66CPOE+3.92
- 34.4%Third-down rate46.4%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.05Points / drive2.61
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:43 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 9:30 | 18 | 71 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 14:11 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q2 11:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 9:37 | 17 | 96 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 2:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 1:34 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| IND | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| IND | Q3 12:16 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| NE | Q3 8:12 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| IND | Q3 4:13 | 15 | 91 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| NE | Q4 10:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–31 |
| IND | Q4 8:57 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 10–31 |
| NE | Q4 7:11 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–31 |
| IND | Q4 6:27 | 11 | 93 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| NE | Q4 2:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–31 |
| IND | Q4 1:43 | 5 | 90 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| NE | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 30/37 | 353 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 9 | 12 | 150 | 2 |
| Austin Collie | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/38 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 11 | 11 | 110 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 6 | 64 | 2 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82