Closing spread
SD -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- DNPBrandyn DombrowskiTFoot
- DNPLuis CastilloDETibia
- DNPNa'il DiggsLBChest
- LimitedCorey LiugetDEFibula
Jaguars
- OutWilliam MiddletonCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulAaron KampmanDEHamstring· Limited
- DoubtfulMatt RothDEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableTerrance KnightonDTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAshton YoubotyCBHip· Limited
- ProbableChris ProsinskiSHamstring· Limited
- ProbableMaurice Jones-DrewRBNot Injury Related· Limited
- ProbableBrock BolenRBCalf· Full
- ProbableCecil ShortsWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableGreg JonesRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableGuy WhimperTThigh· Full
- ProbableJohn ChickDEAbdomen· Full
- ProbableKevin BentleyLBKnee· Full
- ProbableTyson AlualuDTNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:56 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 6:51 | 3 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:18 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:41 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:14 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:32 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q2 1:26 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:53 | 3 | 59 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–14 |
| JAX | Q3 12:04 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 31–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:58 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 31–14 |
| JAX | Q3 6:43 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 31–14 |
| LAC | Q3 5:20 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 31–14 |
| JAX | Q3 0:34 | 10 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 37–14 |
| LAC | Q4 10:57 | 1 | 31 | Touchdown | 38–14 |
| JAX | Q4 10:48 | 12 | 47 | Punt | 38–14 |
| LAC | Q4 4:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 38–14 |
| JAX | Q4 2:38 | 6 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 38–14 |
| LAC | Q4 1:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 19/33 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Fendi Onobun | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.