Closing spread
SD -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 19/33 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Fendi Onobun | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.