Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
48
Model margin
+0.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.102
- 43.6%Success rate44.8%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.115
- 9.6%Explosive rate12.3%
- +1.80CPOE-0.04
- 45.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.08
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/38 | 320 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 3 | 8 | 104 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 7 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/39 | 276 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 87 | 12.4 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 8 | 125 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Legedu Naanee | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92