2011 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

31·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

48

Model margin

+0.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.102
  • 43.6%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.087EPA / rush+0.115
  • 9.6%Explosive rate12.3%
  • +1.80CPOE-0.04
  • 45.0%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.08
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:233-7Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:551062Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 5:29974Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 0:03618Punt7–7
CARQ2 12:23735Punt7–7
ATLQ2 8:463-4Safety7–9
CARQ2 7:12274Touchdown7–16
ATLQ2 6:513-1Punt7–16
CARQ2 5:02460Touchdown7–23
ATLQ2 3:03620Punt7–23
CARQ2 1:3038Punt7–23
ATLQ2 0:4739Punt7–23
CARQ2 0:1111End of half7–23
CARQ3 15:0037Punt7–23
ATLQ3 13:50945Field goal10–23
CARQ3 10:55318Turnover10–23
ATLQ3 9:27235Touchdown17–23
CARQ3 8:55728Turnover17–23
ATLQ3 4:463-4Missed field goal17–23
CARQ3 3:5849Punt17–23
ATLQ3 2:061090Touchdown24–23
CARQ4 12:4237Punt24–23
ATLQ4 10:4138Punt24–23
CARQ4 9:181054Missed field goal24–23
ATLQ4 5:12274Touchdown31–23
CARQ4 4:17748Turnover on downs31–23
ATLQ4 3:31531End of half31–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3832040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner21763.60
Jacquizz Rodgers144.00
Matt Ryan300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones381042
Roddy White711841
Tony Gonzalez711820
Jacquizz Rodgers22391
Harry Douglas23120
Michael Turner0100
Michael Palmer0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton19/3927622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams78712.41
Cam Newton7365.10
Jonathan Stewart8293.60
Armanti Edwards155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith681250
Greg Olsen26531
Legedu Naanee25290
Brandon LaFell25280
Jonathan Stewart49270
Jeremy Shockey24101
DeAngelo Williams1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92