2011 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

20·19

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBengals
  • +0.024EPA / play-0.030
  • 44.6%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.080
  • 11.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.14CPOE-2.19
  • 41.5%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.55
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. CIN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CIN @ HOU20–6CIN
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CIN
HOUQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CINQ1 14:0133Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:59659Field goal3–0
CINQ1 9:51876Field goal3–3
HOUQ1 4:5438Turnover3–3
CINQ1 3:243-4Field goal3–6
HOUQ1 2:311287Turnover3–6
CINQ2 10:471597Touchdown3–13
HOUQ2 3:02956Missed field goal3–13
CINQ2 0:30332Field goal3–16
HOUQ2 0:0600End of half3–16
CINQ3 15:002-3Turnover3–16
HOUQ3 14:19417Touchdown10–16
CINQ3 12:273-1Punt10–16
HOUQ3 11:22512Punt10–16
CINQ3 8:551263Field goal10–19
HOUQ3 2:07933Turnover10–19
CINQ4 13:313-1Punt10–19
HOUQ4 11:501-11Turnover10–19
HOUQ4 11:351288Field goal13–19
CINQ4 5:31723Punt13–19
HOUQ4 2:331263Touchdown20–19
CINQ4 0:0200End of half20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates26/4430021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate8678.40
Arian Foster15412.70
T.J. Yates5367.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels7111000
Kevin Walter610761
Jacoby Jones36390
Arian Foster45330
Ben Tate33300
Joel Dreessen33221
Derrick Mason0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2818910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson21914.30
Bernard Scott640.70
Andrew Hawkins144.00
Andy Dalton122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green57590
Jermaine Gresham37450
Jerome Simpson26381
Andrew Hawkins11220
Bernard Scott22150
Andre Caldwell23100
Cedric Benson1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.38