Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.030
- 44.6%Success rate41.7%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.080
- 11.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.14CPOE-2.19
- 41.5%Third-down rate35.5%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 2.04Points / drive1.55
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CIN are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 26/44 | 300 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 7 | 11 | 100 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 6 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/28 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.38