2011 · Week 15

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

31·15

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

47

Model margin

-1.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.107
  • 45.1%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +4.08CPOE-1.20
  • 39.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.39
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. TB are 7-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TB
TBQ1 15:00437Turnover0–0
DALQ1 12:36756Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 8:4439Punt7–0
DALQ1 6:351169Touchdown14–0
TBQ1 0:1838Punt14–0
DALQ2 13:58613Punt14–0
TBQ2 10:3130Punt14–0
DALQ2 8:34779Touchdown21–0
TBQ2 4:4232Punt21–0
DALQ2 2:52862Touchdown28–0
TBQ2 0:2000End of half28–0
DALQ3 15:004-3Opp touchdown28–7
DALQ3 13:391168Field goal31–7
TBQ3 6:381275Touchdown31–15
DALQ3 0:23936Punt31–15
TBQ4 10:001052Turnover on downs31–15
DALQ4 5:4839Punt31–15
TBQ4 3:2858Turnover on downs31–15
DALQ4 1:54412End of half31–15

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3024930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones221084.90
Sammy Morris12534.40
Tony Romo3-1-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten45770
Miles Austin58531
Dez Bryant44401
Laurent Robinson33291
Felix Jones34230
Martellus Bennett33230
Kevin Ogletree1140
Sammy Morris0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman17/2714810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Freeman4379.30
LeGarrette Blount9212.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kregg Lumpkin58500
Kellen Winslow47370
Dezmon Briscoe33361
Mossis Madu2280
Zack Pianalto1170
Micheal Spurlock1260
Luke Stocker1140
Preston Parker0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.62