2011 · Week 15
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
47
Model margin
-1.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.107
- 45.1%Success rate43.0%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- +4.08CPOE-1.20
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.79Points / drive1.39
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. TB are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/30 | 249 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 5 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 17/27 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kregg Lumpkin | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Mossis Madu | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Zack Pianalto | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.62