2011 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

30·23

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 31°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.000
  • 39.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.023
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.28CPOE+0.64
  • 33.1%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.56
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:333-2Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:4235Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:37510Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 6:25342Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 4:5339Punt0–7
BUFQ1 2:55420Punt0–7
MIAQ1 0:07252Touchdown7–7
BUFQ2 14:53420Punt7–7
MIAQ2 13:171276Field goal10–7
BUFQ2 8:3426Turnover10–7
MIAQ2 7:4541Field goal13–7
BUFQ2 6:0532Punt13–7
MIAQ2 4:15521Punt13–7
BUFQ2 2:2237Punt13–7
MIAQ2 1:21330Turnover13–7
BUFQ2 0:26445Missed field goal13–7
MIAQ3 15:00580Touchdown20–7
BUFQ3 12:0648Turnover20–7
MIAQ3 10:3532Punt20–7
BUFQ3 8:5910Turnover20–7
MIAQ3 8:49422Turnover20–7
BUFQ3 7:02630Punt20–7
MIAQ3 4:13412Punt20–7
BUFQ3 1:4431Punt20–7
MIAQ3 0:04653Field goal23–7
BUFQ4 11:461280Touchdown23–13
MIAQ4 5:54176Touchdown30–13
BUFQ4 5:41867Touchdown30–20
MIAQ4 2:2700Field goal30–20
BUFQ4 2:21749Field goal30–23
MIAQ4 1:2236Punt30–23
BUFQ4 0:161-7End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore10/2021720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush252038.11
Daniel Thomas11423.80
Davone Bess294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall38841
Brian Hartline35690
Charles Clay11300
Anthony Fasano24281
Reggie Bush1160
Davone Bess0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick31/4731623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller12917.61
Tashard Choice5153.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson510820
C.J. Spiller911761
David Nelson67600
Tashard Choice33410
Ruvell Martin34400
Derek Hagan26121
Brad Smith3650

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.98