Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.000
- 39.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.023
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.28CPOE+0.64
- 33.1%Third-down rate30.9%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.63Points / drive1.56
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 10/20 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 25 | 203 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 31/47 | 316 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 9 | 11 | 76 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.98