2011 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

41·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.193EPA / play-0.089
  • 51.2%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.301EPA / dropback-0.100
  • +0.019EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.92CPOE-6.16
  • 46.4%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 69.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.61Points / drive1.16
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
DENQ1 15:00980Touchdown0–6
NEQ1 9:49580Touchdown7–6
DENQ1 7:24482Touchdown7–13
NEQ1 5:0163Punt7–13
DENQ1 3:11963Field goal7–16
NEQ2 13:471280Touchdown14–16
DENQ2 8:431-4Turnover14–16
NEQ2 8:31516Field goal17–16
DENQ2 5:49322Turnover17–16
NEQ2 4:32635Touchdown24–16
DENQ2 1:1237Punt24–16
NEQ2 0:40315Punt27–16
NEQ2 0:0300Field goal27–16
NEQ3 15:001036Punt27–16
DENQ3 9:43929Punt27–16
NEQ3 4:07870Touchdown34–16
DENQ3 0:39410Punt34–16
NEQ4 13:56412Punt34–16
DENQ4 11:19789Touchdown34–23
NEQ4 8:411190Touchdown41–23
DENQ4 4:10710Turnover on downs41–23
NEQ4 2:17515Turnover on downs41–23
DENQ4 1:0845Turnover on downs41–23
NEQ4 0:3800End of half41–23

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3432020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley11655.90
Danny Woodhead7405.71
BenJarvus Green-Ellis10171.71
Aaron Hernandez11616.00
Tom Brady620.31
Kevin Faulk111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Hernandez9111291
Rob Gronkowski45530
Wes Welker46410
Chad Johnson13331
BenJarvus Green-Ellis22320
Tiquan Underwood12130
Danny Woodhead11120
Julian Edelman1170
Kevin Faulk0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow11/2219400
Demaryius Thomas0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Tebow12937.82
Willis McGahee77010.00
Lance Ball11645.81
Jeremiah Johnson12525.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas7131160
Lance Ball24410
Eric Decker12220
Matt Willis12150
Eddie Royal0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16