Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play-0.089
- 51.2%Success rate39.5%
- +0.301EPA / dropback-0.100
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.92CPOE-6.16
- 46.4%Third-down rate30.8%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.61Points / drive1.16
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/34 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 9 | 11 | 129 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 11/22 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 12 | 93 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 70 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 13 | 116 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16