2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

16·45

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

53

Model margin

+4.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.198
  • 43.6%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.087EPA / rush+0.014
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.80CPOE+7.27
  • 45.0%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.96
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:001064Field goal3–0
NOQ1 8:53884Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 5:25872Touchdown10–7
NOQ1 1:311067Touchdown10–14
ATLQ2 12:3239Punt10–14
NOQ2 10:581369Turnover10–14
ATLQ2 5:07634Punt10–14
NOQ2 2:19986Touchdown10–21
ATLQ2 0:2439Turnover on downs10–21
NOQ3 15:00320Turnover10–21
ATLQ3 13:2537Punt10–21
NOQ3 11:43686Touchdown10–28
ATLQ3 8:28562Field goal13–28
NOQ3 4:4133Field goal13–31
ATLQ3 3:041563Field goal16–31
NOQ4 12:4338Punt16–37
ATLQ4 11:2018Opp touchdown16–38
ATLQ4 11:09971Turnover on downs16–38
NOQ4 8:1637Punt16–38
ATLQ4 6:55414Turnover on downs16–38
NOQ4 5:08633Touchdown16–45
ATLQ4 2:51961End of half16–45

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/5237310
Chris Redman6/96100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner11393.50
Jacquizz Rodgers1-1-1.00
Matt Ryan2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones8141281
Roddy White11161270
Tony Gonzalez59410
Michael Turner44360
Eric Weems34330
Michael Palmer22190
Jacquizz Rodgers22190
Harry Douglas1130
Reggie Kelly0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3930742

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles56713.40
Pierre Thomas9535.91
Chris Ivory8354.40
Drew Brees199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston711811
Robert Meachem35751
Lance Moore23530
Jimmy Graham49421
Devery Henderson35300
Darren Sproles23221
Pierre Thomas2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.20