Closing spread
NO -7
Total
53
Model margin
+4.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.198
- 43.6%Success rate51.4%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.80CPOE+7.27
- 45.0%Third-down rate58.6%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.86Points / drive2.96
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/52 | 373 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 6/9 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 14 | 128 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 11 | 16 | 127 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/39 | 307 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 67 | 13.4 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 11 | 81 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.20