Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.129
- 44.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.182
- 11.9%Explosive rate6.8%
- -0.14CPOE-4.66
- 41.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 2.04Points / drive1.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 13/16 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 23 | 158 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 23/41 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 14 | 106 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+7.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.08