2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

16·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Dan Orlovsky

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

+7.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.024EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.182
  • 11.9%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -0.14CPOE-4.66
  • 41.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.05
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:001-4Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 14:51217Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 14:063-1Punt7–0
HOUQ1 13:032-3Turnover7–0
INDQ1 12:283-3Punt7–0
HOUQ1 10:3041Punt7–0
INDQ1 8:14622Field goal7–3
HOUQ1 4:38554Field goal10–3
INDQ1 2:0137Punt10–3
HOUQ1 0:25427Punt10–3
INDQ2 13:06817Punt10–3
HOUQ2 8:3933Punt10–3
INDQ2 7:15826Field goal10–6
HOUQ2 3:3639Punt10–6
INDQ2 1:521065Missed field goal10–6
HOUQ2 0:0400End of half10–6
HOUQ3 15:00763Field goal13–6
INDQ3 10:2533Punt13–6
HOUQ3 8:42420Punt13–6
INDQ3 6:051151Field goal13–9
HOUQ3 0:54537Punt13–9
INDQ4 12:561176Field goal13–12
HOUQ4 6:481152Field goal16–12
INDQ4 1:561361Touchdown16–19
HOUQ4 0:1924End of half16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates13/1613200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster231586.91
Jacoby Jones11515.00
Ben Tate6-1-0.20
T.J. Yates1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Walter33470
Joel Dreessen44380
Jacoby Jones22270
Arian Foster33160
Owen Daniels1240
Bryant Johnson0100
James Casey0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Orlovsky23/4124410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai19593.10
Donald Brown11353.20
Dan Orlovsky122.00
Delone Carter1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne8141061
Pierre Garcon612500
Austin Collie36490
Donald Brown23130
Jacob Tamme12100
Joseph Addai1180
Brody Eldridge2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.1%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.77
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.08