Closing spread
TEN -8.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.046
- 36.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.210EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.170
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -11.15CPOE-1.91
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.9%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.10Points / drive1.51
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 21/42 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 103 | 4.3 | 1 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarett Dillard | 5 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Colin Cloherty | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 10 | 21 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/40 | 350 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 8 | 8 | 169 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 8 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.23