2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

17·23

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TEN -8.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.173EPA / play-0.046
  • 36.3%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.170
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -11.15CPOE-1.91
  • 34.3%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.10Points / drive1.51
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:00820Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:5738Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:53424Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 7:0537Punt0–9
TENQ1 4:46155Touchdown0–10
JAXQ1 4:39882Touchdown7–10
TENQ1 0:19771Touchdown7–17
JAXQ2 12:0332Punt7–17
TENQ2 11:03512Punt7–17
JAXQ2 8:28647Punt7–17
TENQ2 5:39761Turnover7–17
JAXQ2 2:241143Field goal10–17
TENQ2 0:3100End of half10–17
JAXQ3 15:0043Punt10–17
TENQ3 12:233-1Punt10–17
JAXQ3 11:3938Punt10–17
TENQ3 9:38633Field goal10–20
JAXQ3 6:16824Punt10–20
TENQ3 2:5836Punt10–20
JAXQ3 1:21418Punt10–20
TENQ4 14:48663Field goal10–23
JAXQ4 12:29414Punt10–23
TENQ4 11:2634Turnover10–23
JAXQ4 10:2849Turnover10–23
TENQ4 8:21515Turnover10–23
JAXQ4 5:381035Touchdown17–23
TENQ4 3:41549End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert21/4219801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew241034.31
DuJuan Harris252.50
Blaine Gabbert144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarett Dillard510610
Colin Cloherty24330
Mike Thomas36260
Zach Potter12220
Maurice Jones-Drew610210
Chastin West14140
Marcedes Lewis13120
Brock Bolen0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck24/4035012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson15563.70
Jamie Harper461.51
Matt Hasselbeck520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook881691
Damian Williams811830
Nate Washington411710
Craig Stevens12170
Lavelle Hawkins2350
Jamie Harper1150
Chris Johnson0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.23