Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
49
Model margin
+5.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.193
- 39.0%Success rate51.2%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.116EPA / rush+0.019
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.28CPOE+3.92
- 33.1%Third-down rate46.4%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.63Points / drive2.61
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 16/32 | 281 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 22 | 113 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 3 | -8 | -2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 11 | 143 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/46 | 304 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 2 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 12 | 19 | 138 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.95