2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

24·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 30°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

49

Model margin

+5.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.033EPA / play+0.193
  • 39.0%Success rate51.2%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.301
  • -0.116EPA / rush+0.019
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.28CPOE+3.92
  • 33.1%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.61
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:00850Field goal3–0
NEQ1 10:59929Punt3–0
MIAQ1 7:08516Punt3–0
NEQ1 4:3630Punt3–0
MIAQ1 3:08310Punt3–0
NEQ1 2:13519Punt3–0
MIAQ1 0:54582Touchdown10–0
NEQ2 13:4539Punt10–0
MIAQ2 12:241363Touchdown17–0
NEQ2 6:3132Punt17–0
MIAQ2 5:3136Punt17–0
NEQ2 3:573-2Punt17–0
MIAQ2 2:45522Punt17–0
NEQ2 0:48550Missed field goal17–0
MIAQ2 0:0300End of half17–0
NEQ3 15:001049Field goal17–3
MIAQ3 11:3932Turnover17–3
NEQ3 10:45733Touchdown17–10
MIAQ3 7:103-7Punt17–10
NEQ3 5:02741Touchdown17–17
MIAQ3 2:17846Turnover17–17
NEQ4 12:401084Field goal17–20
MIAQ4 8:5545Punt17–20
NEQ4 7:421159Touchdown17–27
MIAQ4 2:56780Touchdown24–27
NEQ4 1:48429End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore16/3228131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush221135.10
Brandon Marshall11313.00
Daniel Thomas231.50
Matt Moore3-8-2.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall6111431
Brian Hartline48720
Davone Bess35391
Reggie Bush23260
Charles Clay1311

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/4630410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley13644.90
Danny Woodhead4205.00
Tom Brady9171.92
BenJarvus Green-Ellis3103.30
Wes Welker177.00
Aaron Hernandez111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker12191380
Rob Gronkowski79780
Deion Branch39371
Aaron Hernandez46360
Chad Johnson12150
Stevan Ridley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.95