2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

16·48

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -9

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.102
  • 43.0%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.164EPA / rush+0.115
  • 6.3%Explosive rate12.3%
  • -1.20CPOE-0.04
  • 37.0%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.08
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:00971Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:1210Turnover0–7
CARQ1 9:5935Field goal0–10
TBQ1 8:271770Touchdown7–10
CARQ2 14:07292Touchdown7–17
TBQ2 13:061171Field goal10–17
CARQ2 5:331084Field goal10–20
TBQ2 0:2500End of half10–20
TBQ3 15:00415Turnover10–20
CARQ3 13:27332Touchdown10–27
TBQ3 11:5533Punt10–27
CARQ3 10:313-3Punt10–27
TBQ3 9:18433Turnover10–27
CARQ3 6:58661Touchdown10–34
TBQ3 3:24620Turnover on downs10–34
CARQ3 1:13255Touchdown10–41
TBQ3 0:2400Touchdown10–41
CARQ3 0:1728Touchdown10–48
TBQ4 14:531050Touchdown16–48
CARQ4 11:08517Punt16–48
TBQ4 7:20956Turnover on downs16–48
CARQ4 3:14412End of half16–48

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman28/3827411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kregg Lumpkin7243.40
Mossis Madu4205.00
LeGarrette Blount2115.50
Josh Freeman640.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow67630
Sammie Stroughter45520
Mossis Madu46420
Mike Williams48390
Kregg Lumpkin44380
Preston Parker11160
Luke Stocker33140
Dezmon Briscoe1160
Arrelious Benn1241
Micheal Spurlock0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton12/1717130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart78812.60
DeAngelo Williams7669.42
Cam Newton66510.81
Josh Vaughan7243.40
Steve Smith12323.00
Richie Brockel252.50
Derek Anderson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell331031
DeAngelo Williams22180
Jeremy Shockey22141
Legedu Naanee23120
Jonathan Stewart12111
Steve Smith1390
Richie Brockel1140
Greg Olsen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.91