2011 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
CAR -9
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.102
- 43.0%Success rate44.8%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.164EPA / rush+0.115
- 6.3%Explosive rate12.3%
- -1.20CPOE-0.04
- 37.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.39Points / drive2.08
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 28/38 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kregg Lumpkin | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mossis Madu | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Mossis Madu | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12/17 | 171 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 88 | 12.6 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Josh Vaughan | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 3 | 103 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Legedu Naanee | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.91