2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

24·16

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.030
  • 41.6%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.68CPOE-2.19
  • 42.5%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.55
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:00480Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 12:5839Punt7–0
BALQ1 11:11659Field goal10–0
CINQ1 6:45828Field goal10–3
BALQ1 3:0237Punt10–3
CINQ1 1:321159Missed field goal10–3
BALQ2 10:27614Punt10–3
CINQ2 7:2439Punt10–3
BALQ2 5:031360Touchdown17–3
CINQ2 0:1100End of half17–3
CINQ3 15:0032Punt17–3
BALQ3 13:49518Punt17–3
CINQ3 10:16611Punt17–3
BALQ3 7:5748Punt17–3
CINQ3 5:21548Touchdown17–10
BALQ3 3:2630Punt17–10
CINQ3 1:27932Field goal17–13
BALQ4 12:35419Punt17–13
CINQ4 10:18637Turnover17–13
BALQ4 7:15360Touchdown24–13
CINQ4 5:411055Field goal24–16
BALQ4 2:39422Punt24–16
CINQ4 1:05747End of half24–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco15/1913010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice241918.02
Ricky Williams6284.70
Joe Flacco111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta67621
Torrey Smith57330
Ed Dickson11200
Ray Rice2280
Lee Evans0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/4423200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson13513.90
Bernard Scott6345.71
Andy Dalton4174.30
Andrew Hawkins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham55720
Jerome Simpson510540
Andrew Hawkins34340
A.J. Green29260
Brian Leonard25190
Cedric Benson23100
Donald Lee2390
Bernard Scott1280
Ryan Whalen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.29