Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.030
- 41.6%Success rate41.7%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.68CPOE-2.19
- 42.5%Third-down rate35.5%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.55
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/19 | 130 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 24 | 191 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/44 | 232 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 5 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29