Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.173
- 39.3%Success rate36.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.127
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- -4.66CPOE-11.15
- 34.4%Third-down rate34.3%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.05Points / drive1.10
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 27/40 | 264 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 9 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 11/19 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 25 | 169 | 6.8 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Kassim Osgood | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Colin Cloherty | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.75
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.28