2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Dan Orlovsky

13·19

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.173
  • 39.3%Success rate36.3%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback-0.210
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.127
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -4.66CPOE-11.15
  • 34.4%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.10
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001270Turnover on downs0–0
INDQ1 8:0435Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:29635Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 3:101354Field goal3–7
JAXQ2 12:034-8Turnover3–7
INDQ2 10:1048Turnover on downs3–7
JAXQ2 8:4232Punt3–7
INDQ2 7:4331Punt3–7
JAXQ2 5:50856Field goal3–10
INDQ2 1:01524Turnover3–10
INDQ3 15:001278Field goal6–10
JAXQ3 9:07457Field goal6–13
INDQ3 7:3334Turnover6–13
JAXQ3 6:3540Field goal6–16
INDQ3 5:47619Punt6–16
JAXQ3 3:0055Punt6–16
INDQ4 15:00823Turnover6–16
JAXQ4 10:38625Field goal6–19
INDQ4 6:30882Touchdown13–19
JAXQ4 3:22422End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Orlovsky27/4026412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown8243.00
Joseph Addai8192.40
Dan Orlovsky177.00
Delone Carter561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie911961
Reggie Wayne811730
Dallas Clark59530
Pierre Garcon25220
Donald Brown22150
Delone Carter1150
Joseph Addai0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert11/199210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew251696.80
DuJuan Harris3124.00
Deji Karim263.00
Montell Owens133.00
Mike Thomas133.00
Blaine Gabbert3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis34330
Chastin West12231
Kassim Osgood22190
Jarett Dillard1280
Maurice Jones-Drew1340
DuJuan Harris1140
Colin Cloherty1230
Mike Thomas13-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.75
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-0.28