Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.024
- 39.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.7%Explosive rate11.9%
- -1.91CPOE-0.14
- 35.9%Third-down rate41.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.51Points / drive2.04
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/35 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 9 | 92 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/28 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 4/4 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Casey | 7 | 7 | 91 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 2 | 45 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.44
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+1.26