2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

23·22

Texans

Houston

QB Jake Delhomme

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.024
  • 39.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.7%Explosive rate11.9%
  • -1.91CPOE-0.14
  • 35.9%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.04
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
TENQ1 15:00647Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:581386Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 5:153-1Punt0–7
HOUQ1 3:5938Punt0–7
TENQ1 2:26969Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 13:0641Punt3–7
TENQ2 11:1734Punt3–7
HOUQ2 9:33625Turnover3–7
TENQ2 6:29533Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 3:48631Field goal10–10
TENQ2 1:09655Field goal13–10
HOUQ3 15:00576Field goal13–13
TENQ3 11:4631Punt13–13
HOUQ3 10:163-1Punt13–13
TENQ3 9:08462Field goal16–13
HOUQ3 7:221277Field goal16–16
TENQ4 14:57614Punt16–16
HOUQ4 11:2439Punt16–16
TENQ4 9:4330Punt16–16
HOUQ4 9:1639Punt16–16
TENQ4 7:03656Touchdown23–16
HOUQ4 4:31430Punt23–16
TENQ4 2:57522Turnover23–16
HOUQ4 1:49636Touchdown23–22
TENQ4 0:1400End of half23–22

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3529720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson15614.10
Jamie Harper4194.80
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington49921
Jared Cook47630
Chris Johnson44490
Donnie Avery36451
Damian Williams22210
Lavelle Hawkins33190
Jamie Harper1240
Marc Mariani0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme18/2821110
T.J. Yates4/44700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate16976.11
Derrick Ward12504.20
Jacoby Jones144.00
Bryant Johnson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Casey77910
Bryant Johnson22451
Jacoby Jones37350
Garrett Graham11240
Ben Tate45240
Andre Johnson22210
Joel Dreessen33180
Kevin Walter0100
Derrick Ward0100
Jeff Maehl0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.44
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+1.26