2011 · DIV

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

10·45

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 24°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -14

Total

50

Model margin

+6.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.193
  • 39.5%Success rate51.2%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.301
  • -0.078EPA / rush+0.019
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -6.16CPOE+3.92
  • 30.8%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
  • 1.16Points / drive2.61
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NE
NEQ1 15:00580Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 13:09635Turnover0–7
NEQ1 10:07759Touchdown0–14
DENQ1 6:42626Punt0–14
NEQ1 3:26412Turnover0–14
DENQ1 2:00424Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 14:54515Punt7–14
DENQ2 13:2737Punt7–14
NEQ2 11:17852Touchdown7–21
DENQ2 7:4231Punt7–21
NEQ2 6:3133Punt7–21
DENQ2 5:44723Punt7–21
NEQ2 2:27272Touchdown7–28
DENQ2 1:5735Punt7–28
NEQ2 1:09558Touchdown7–35
DENQ2 0:0500End of half7–35
DENQ3 15:0032Punt7–35
NEQ3 13:26439Touchdown7–42
DENQ3 11:463-9Punt7–42
NEQ3 10:29532Turnover7–42
DENQ3 8:301343Field goal10–42
NEQ3 2:141063Field goal10–45
DENQ4 12:391477Turnover on downs10–45
NEQ4 7:14624Punt10–45
DENQ4 2:56519End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow9/2613600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee17764.51
Lance Ball13443.40
Tim Tebow5132.60
Jeremiah Johnson4102.50
Eddie Royal111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas610930
Eddie Royal28250
Matt Willis14180
Willis McGahee0200
Dante Rosario0100
Lance Ball0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3436361

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Hernandez56112.20
BenJarvus Green-Ellis13282.20
Danny Woodhead4256.30
Stevan Ridley4215.30
Tom Brady382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski10121453
Deion Branch34851
Wes Welker67551
Aaron Hernandez46551
Julian Edelman13110
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1180
Stevan Ridley1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.69