Closing spread
NE -14
Total
50
Model margin
+6.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.193
- 39.5%Success rate51.2%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.078EPA / rush+0.019
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -6.16CPOE+3.92
- 30.8%Third-down rate46.4%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.16Points / drive2.61
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 9/26 | 136 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/34 | 363 | 6 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 61 | 12.2 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 10 | 12 | 145 | 3 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 4 | 85 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.69