2013 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

13·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

47

Model margin

+2.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.115
  • 42.1%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.02CPOE+5.36
  • 44.3%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.21
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
CARQ1 15:001253Field goal3–0
NOQ1 8:4235Punt3–0
CARQ1 7:08826Field goal6–0
NOQ1 1:56980Touchdown6–7
CARQ2 13:35733Punt6–7
NOQ2 8:281486Touchdown6–14
CARQ2 2:443-10Punt6–14
NOQ2 2:01776Touchdown6–21
CARQ2 0:1818End of half6–21
NOQ3 15:0036Punt6–21
CARQ3 13:50639Missed field goal6–21
NOQ3 10:191260Field goal6–24
CARQ3 4:1857Punt6–24
NOQ3 1:5538Punt6–24
CARQ3 1:0675Punt6–24
NOQ4 13:38953Touchdown6–31
CARQ4 9:521171Touchdown13–31
NOQ4 5:1530Punt13–31
CARQ4 2:5637Punt13–31
NOQ4 1:0600End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton22/3416010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams13524.00
Cam Newton6488.00
Jonathan Stewart11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith68491
Greg Olsen812400
Brandon LaFell24220
Jonathan Stewart11160
DeAngelo Williams12110
Ted Ginn2550

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/4231340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles13838.00
Pierre Thomas7142.00
Khiry Robinson166.00
Robert Meachem144.00
Mark Ingram341.30
Drew Brees331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston9131252
Jimmy Graham611582
Lance Moore34400
Darren Sproles33230
Kenny Stills22220
Benjamin Watson11200
Pierre Thomas44140
Robert Meachem1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.27