Closing spread
NO -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.115
- 42.1%Success rate47.2%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.02CPOE+5.36
- 44.3%Third-down rate45.1%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 2.03Points / drive2.21
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 22/34 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 12 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/42 | 313 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 9 | 13 | 125 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 11 | 58 | 2 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.27