2013 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

13·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.050
  • 47.2%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.056
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +5.36CPOE+1.02
  • 45.1%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.03
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:00654Turnover0–0
NOQ1 11:35922Punt0–0
CARQ1 6:5234Punt0–0
NOQ1 5:22620Punt0–0
CARQ1 1:253-3Punt0–0
NOQ1 0:11750Field goal3–0
CARQ2 10:4900Field goal3–0
NOQ2 10:43646Field goal6–0
CARQ2 7:2234Punt6–0
NOQ2 5:3339Punt6–0
CARQ2 4:304-4Punt6–0
NOQ2 2:3534Turnover6–6
CARQ2 1:54143Touchdown6–7
NOQ2 1:4566Punt6–7
CARQ2 0:2300End of half6–7
NOQ3 15:00961Turnover on downs6–7
CARQ3 10:54644Field goal6–10
NOQ3 7:21612Turnover6–10
CARQ3 4:2635Punt6–10
NOQ3 2:1765Punt6–10
CARQ4 13:2934Punt6–10
NOQ4 12:361197Touchdown13–10
CARQ4 6:3734Punt13–10
NOQ4 4:523-3Punt13–10
CARQ4 3:5233Punt13–10
NOQ4 1:5732Punt13–10
CARQ4 0:55465Touchdown13–17
NOQ4 0:23434End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/4428112
Luke McCown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13836.40
Khiry Robinson6183.00
Drew Brees199.00
Pierre Thomas482.00
Kenny Stills133.00
Darren Sproles122.00
Robert Meachem1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham511731
Marques Colston510630
Lance Moore33470
Benjamin Watson22260
Kenny Stills24230
Darren Sproles35180
Robert Meachem22140
Pierre Thomas5570
Mark Ingram1170

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton13/2218111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams12675.61
Ted Ginn177.00
Cam Newton461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn24660
Steve Smith12440
Greg Olsen47350
Domenik Hixon23181
Brandon LaFell12130
DeAngelo Williams1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.62