Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.050
- 47.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +5.36CPOE+1.02
- 45.1%Third-down rate44.3%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.21Points / drive2.03
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/44 | 281 | 1 | 2 |
| Luke McCown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 83 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13/22 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62