2016 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

16·0

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-1.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.128
  • 44.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback+0.276
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.94CPOE+2.98
  • 41.7%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.47
  • 1.1%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
NEQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:421475Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 5:3137Punt7–0
BUFQ1 3:47967Field goal10–0
NEQ2 14:49414Punt10–0
BUFQ2 12:261166Field goal13–0
NEQ2 7:46575Turnover13–0
BUFQ2 5:00943Punt13–0
NEQ2 1:003-11Punt13–0
BUFQ3 15:0032Punt13–0
NEQ3 14:071046Missed field goal13–0
BUFQ3 10:27733Missed field goal13–0
NEQ3 7:15522Punt13–0
BUFQ3 4:551029Field goal16–0
NEQ3 0:2869Punt16–0
BUFQ4 13:031046Punt16–0
NEQ4 7:021365Turnover on downs16–0
BUFQ4 2:46517Punt16–0
NEQ4 0:57337End of half16–0

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor27/3924610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19703.70
Mike Gillislee6305.00
Tyrod Taylor5285.60
Brandon Tate144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods710890
Charles Clay57470
LeSean McCoy66381
Walt Powell45220
Nick O'Leary22200
Mike Gillislee12130
Marquise Goodwin15120

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/2720500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13544.20
Jacoby Brissett4235.80
James White4123.00
Julian Edelman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett561090
James White55500
Julian Edelman14160
Brandon Bolden23150
Rob Gronkowski12110
LeGarrette Blount3340
Danny Amendola0200
Chris Hogan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.32
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.05