Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.128
- 44.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.076EPA / dropback+0.276
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.94CPOE+2.98
- 41.7%Third-down rate47.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.08Points / drive2.47
- 1.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 27/39 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 7 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Walt Powell | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/27 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-6.32
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.05